Wet and Dry Spell Analysis for Crop Planning in Central Plain Zone of Punjab Using Markov Chain Method

Abstract

A study was conducted during 2017–2018 at department of climate change and agricultural meteorology, PAU, Ludhiana to find out the initial and conditional probability of occurrence of wet and dry spell of rainfall at different locations of Punjab, the analysis was carried out using Markov Chain Method (MCM). The historical data of rainfall for three locations of Punjab viz. Amritsar (1971–2017), Ludhiana (1971–2018) and Patiala (1971–2018) were collected from the Department of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology, PAU, Ludhiana and Met Centre, India Meteorological Department, Chandigarh. At Amritsar the chances of occurrence of wet spell were highest during 28^th SMW i.e., 72% followed by 68% during 30^th and 31^st SMW respectively. The conditional probability calculated at Ludhiana showed that the probability of wet spell followed by wet spell was highest (71%) during 28^th SMW followed by 66 per cent during 30^th and 32^nd SMW. At Patiala the probability of wet spell was highest (69%) during 33^rd week followed by 63% during 29^th SMW. The conditional probability also showed that dry spell followed by dry spell occurred more frequently than wet spell followed by wet spell.